The Arithmetic of the 2025 Carbon Tax Proposal
A $40/ton initial price carbon fee yields $1.8 trillion over a decade, but distributional analysis shows severe regressivity without the companion dividend mechanism. We ran the numbers.
Research Domains
Tax Reform & Revenue
Evaluating corporate rate adjustments, wealth tax administration costs, and VAT proposals against historical OECD baseline revenues.
Housing & Infrastructure
Zoning reform impacts, federal transit funding efficiency, and the arithmetic of public-private partnerships in urban rail.
Healthcare Finance
Medicare negotiation pricing models, single-payer transition arithmetic, and hospital consolidation impacts on regional premiums.
Run the numbers yourself.
Policy shouldn't be a black box. We open-source our demographic and economic models. Adjust the assumptions, change the parameters, and see how the bottom line shifts. No coding required.
Explore Policy ToolsThe Danger of Static Scoring
Legislative debates often rely on static revenue scores that assume economic actors will not adjust to new incentives or penalties. We reject this premise.
By incorporating baseline elasticities derived from peer-reviewed empirical literature, our dynamic models provide a more accurate forecast of a policy's true fiscal and economic impact.
"A policy is only as effective as the arithmetic beneath it. Intent does not alter the budget deficit."
Deep Dives
Zoning & Supply
Why upzoning yields wildly different price impacts depending on geographic constraints.
Wealth Tax Yields
The discrepancy between theoretical revenue and net realized collections.
Medicare Negotiation
Balancing short-term fiscal savings against long-term pharmaceutical innovation.
Transit Cost Disease
Institutional drivers pushing US rail construction to $1B+ per kilometer.
Data Archives & Open API
The models driving our policy analyses are accessible via our open JSON API. Researchers and journalists can query baseline elasticity estimates, historical revenue series, and infrastructure cost benchmarks directly.
// Example: Fetching transit cost data
GET /api/v1/infrastructure/transit-costs?metro=NYC
{ "median_cost_per_km": 2500000000, "regulatory_premium": 3.1 }
Recent Datasets
- csv / 2024-Oecd-Corp-Rates.csv
- json / cbo-baseline-emissions-2035.json
- sql / hospital-monopsony-index.sql
- csv / housing-elasticity-msa.csv
Our Methodology
We evaluate legislative proposals by prioritizing observable outcomes over rhetorical intent. Our analysis spans taxation, housing, climate, and healthcare, utilizing data from the CBO, JCT, BLS, and EIA.
Read About Our Methodology →Publication Timeline
2026 Medicare Price Models
Analysis published on the projected savings and R&D trade-offs of the IRA's drug negotiation provisions.
The Arithmetic of a 30% Corporate Rate
Dynamic scoring analysis of corporate tax rate increases versus base broadening strategies.
Wealth Tax Administration Costs
Deep dive into the discrepancy between theoretical revenue and net realized collections from wealth taxes.
Zoning Supply Elasticity
Analysis of missing middle housing and the mathematical necessity of upzoning.
Verify The Numbers
We provide full transparency. All model assumptions and data sources are documented.
Frequently Asked Questions
Our Analysts
Quantitative experts drawing from economics, law, and data science.
Dr. Aris Kallistos
Director of Climate Modeling
Former chief economist at the Energy Transitions Commission. Specializes in carbon pricing elasticity and industrial sector decarbonization mathematics.
Sarah Renard, JD/PhD
Lead, Tax Reform Initiative
Expert in corporate base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS). Advises on dynamic scoring methodologies for JCT comparisons.
James MacAllister
Infrastructure Analyst
Civil engineer turned policy analyst. Tracks procurement friction, NEPA litigation delays, and transit cost premiums across OECD nations.
Public Testimony & Hearings
Senate Finance Committee
Testimony regarding the administrative feasibility and estimated net yield of proposed unrealized gains taxation mechanisms.
House Ways and Means
Submission on the revenue offsets required for the extension of the TCJA individual provisions.
Senate EPW Committee
Analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) litigation timelines and their impact on clean energy deployment costs.
The Friday Briefing
Receive one concrete, data-backed policy evaluation every week. No partisan spin. Just the arithmetic.
State Capacity & Execution
A policy is only as effective as the institution executing it. We explicitly model administrative drag—the cost, delay, and friction introduced by regulatory compliance, enforcement, and state-capacity constraints.
Whether evaluating a wealth tax or a high-speed rail line, the bottleneck is rarely capital; it is execution bandwidth.